WHILE I have no quarrel with Mr Young (Review, January 4), and do not wish to accuse him of spreading fake-news, I am wondering where he gets his financial information from, particularly that regarding the ‘£450 billion net benefit per year’ to the UK from the EU? 

From published data UK GDP for 2018 is just over £2,200 Billion, of which services generated 80.2 per cent, industry 19.2 per cent, and agriculture 0.6 per cent.

About 44 per cent of UK exports in goods and services went to countries within the EU in 2017—£274 billion out of £616 billion total exports.

That share has generally been declining, since exports to other countries have increased at a faster rate.

The EU’s share of the world economy has been declining too.

In particular, the developing world has been growing faster than the developed world and is expected to continue doing so.

Some 53 per cent of imports into the UK came from countries within the EU in 2017 and we have a deficit in EU trade – we buy more from them than they from us.

In regard to manufactured goods, UK exports – £320 billion – exports to the US were 14.6 per cent, Germany 10.1 per cent, Switzerland seven per cent,  China six per cent, France 5.9 per cent, Netherlands 5.8 per cent and Ireland 5.5 per cent and the balance – 40 per cent – to rest of the world. (2016 data).

Against this imports were valued (2016) at £450 billion Manufactured goods from main partners Germany 14.8 per cent, China 9.8 per cent, US 9.2 per cent, Netherlands 7.5 per cent, France 5.8 per cent, and Belgium 5 per cent, balance from rest of the world.

Foreign direct investment amounted to £1,000 billion and Britain invested some £1,100 billion overseas (2016 figures).

Significant amounts have also been remitted to their home-countries by foreign nationals including EU citizens working in the UK.

It should also be noted that Britain gave economic aid of over £14 billion in 2017 (0.7 per cent) of GDP, not an insignificant sum.

It is natural that trade with geographic neighbours would remain whether we are in or out of the EU and tariff differences if any, EU exporters have more to lose in any tariff-war.

It’s sometimes argued that statistics overstate the proportion of UK exports that go to the EU, because a lot of goods pass through ports like Rotterdam before being shipped to final destinations outside the EU.

Discussion about trade and economic benefits can be spun anyway you like to justify desired objectives.

Various constants and numeric relationships are applied in designing such models.

Even economists differ on many aspects of their models and projections over future years.

Many factors in economics, human behaviour, and politics will change in the coming years all of which will impact on future outcomes which no one can predict today.

I would suggest to Mr Young and others that basing their Brexit arguments on such forecasts are totally meaningless.

– Venk Shenoi, Blaisdon.